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Regional labour market forecasts: evaluation studies

Technical reports by Jessie Bakens, David Sijmons and Emiel Verkade

research memorandum

As part of the Education and Labour Market Project (POA), two technical reports have been published that evaluate key assumption underlying the regional labour market forecast model.

  • Sijmons and Bakens (2020) test the assumption that the regional sectoral occupational and educational structures are the same as the national sectoral structures. The study shows that there are indeed differences between regions in their sectoral occupational and educational structures, but these differences are very small and only for a few combinations of sectoral occupation or sectoral education structures there is relatively much heterogeneity. The research also shows that including sectoral heterogeneity could improve the regional forecasts, however, lack of data availability for regional sectoral occupational and educational structures impedes the implementation of heterogeneous sector structures across regions in the regional forecast model.
  • Verkade and Bakens (2020) evaluate the calculation of the regional commuter-adjusted indicator of forecasted imbalances between labour supply and demand by field of study (ITA) for labour market regions. The regional ITA in our models is adjusted to reflect the fact that workers can commute to different regions when the educational forecasts are more favourable in one region than another. The regional forecast model therefore includes a recalculation of the initially estimated ITA to a commuter-adjusted ITA. The research shows that the coefficients currently used to adjust the ITA are in the right range, but the adjusted ITA could be improved if the coefficients in the model are differentiated by education level.

Sijmons, D. & J. Bakens (2020). Regional labour market structures, ROA Technical Report 2020/4. 

Verkade, E. & J. Bakens (2020). Commuter flow predictions in POA: Evaluation study, ROA Technical Report 2020/5. 

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