Project Onderwijs-Arbeidsmarkt (POA)
Research leader:
Fouarge, DResearch team: Jessie Bakens (ROA), Ineke Bijlsma (ROA), Sander Dijksman (ROA), Sanne Steens (ROA), Rogier Goedhart (ROA)
Funded by: Nationaal Regieorgaan Onderwijsonderzoek (NRO; file number 405-17-900), the UWV Werkbedrijf, the Cooperation Organisation for Vocational Education, Training and the Labour Market (SBB), and employment agency Randstad Netherlands. Four Dutch ministries contribute to the NRO funding: the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW), the Ministry of Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK), the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment (SZW), and the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV).
Latest publication:
- Rapport De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep 2026 (ROA-R-2021/5)
- Factsheet arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep 2026 (ROA-F-2021/2)
- Factsheet labour market forecasts up to 2026 (ROA-F-2021/2E)
This project focuses on the match between education and occupation, the substitution processes in the labour market, and generates the mid-term forecasts for the labour market perspectives for about 100 educational programmes and occupations, 35 labour market regions and 21 industry sectors in the Netherlands.
- Using a variety of data and own econometric models we forecast labour demand (i.e., expansion, replacement and substitution demand) and supply (i.e., influx of graduates in into the labour market) ROA computes early warning indicators for imbalances on the labour market. Our labour market forecasts are updated every other year.
- These early warning indicators are useful to the youth when considering their educational and occupational choice, to the unemployed and unemployed placement office when considering retraining or career changes, to employers in their hiring policy and to policy makers who are concerned about the optimality of the match between educational demand and supply on the labour market.
- As part of this project, we produce an online statistical database containing our labour market forecasts and actual labour market information, the ‘Arbeidsmarktinformatiesysteem (AIS)’. The list of available indicators can be found in Appendix C of our latest report. Information requests for data from AIS should be addressed to S. Dijksman.
- Our forecasts and actual labour market information are widely used in research and policy.
- There is growing evidence that increasing the [transparency of labour market improves educational choices].
Recent reports and methods (in Dutch):
- Forecasts till 2024 and covid crisis (paper in ESB)
- Rapport De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep 2026 (ROA-R-2021/5)
- Factsheet arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep 2026 (ROA-F-2021/2)
- Factsheet labour market forecasts up to 2026 (ROA-F-2021/2E)
- Methodiek nationale arbeidsmarktpognoses 2021-2026 (ROA-TR-2021/6)
- Rendement van bachelor en master diploma's (ROA-R-2021/4)
- Naar een arbeidsmarktmonitor voor de groene sector (ROA-R-2021/1)
- Frictie op de arbeidsmarkt door de energietransitie - een modelverkenning (ROA External Report)
- Methodiek regionale arbeidsmarktprognoses 2019-2024 (ROA-TR-2020/1)
On the use of labour market information in education choices (in Dutch):
- Fact sheet Schoolverlaters tussen onderwijs en arbeidsmarkt 2017
- De rol van arbeidsmarktinformatie in de opleidingskeuze van mbo’ers
- Studiekeuze en arbeidsmarkt: Literatuurstudie
Recent evaluation studies (partly in Dutch):
- Evaluatie van arbeidsmarktprognoses naar beroep
- Commuter flow predictions in POA: Evaluation study
- Regional labour market structures
- Labour market forecasts by education and occupation up to 2024
- Project Onderwijs-Arbeidsmarkt: Gebruik van arbeidsmarktinformatie en impact
- International mobility of students – Its impact on labour market forecasts and its contribution to the Dutch economy
- Evaluatie uitbreidingsvraag en indicator toekomstige arbeidsmarktsituatie (ITA) tot 2008
- An evaluation of the forecast of the indicator of the labour market gap
- Evaluatie vervangingsvraagprognoses naar opleiding en beroep
- Verkenning van de mogelijkheden van het gebruik van administratieve data voor het Project Onderwijs-Arbeidsmarkt
Classifications:
- Occupational classification: Beroepenindeling ROA-CBS 2014 (BRC 2014)
- Educational classification: ROA Opleidingsclassificatie naar Niveau en Richting 2019 (ONR2019)
- Methodiek ROA/Groenpact-classificatie van de groene sector
