Project Onderwijs-Arbeidsmarkt (POA)
Research leader:Fouarge, D
Funded by: Nationaal Regieorgaan Onderwijsonderzoek (NRO; file number 405-17-900), the UWV Werkbedrijf, the Cooperation Organisation for Vocational Education, Training and the Labour Market (SBB), and employment agency Randstad Netherlands. Four Dutch ministries contribute to the NRO funding: the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW), the Ministry of Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK), the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment (SZW), and the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (LNV).
Latest publication: De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep tot 2024
This project focuses on the match between education and occupation, the substitution processes in the labour market, and generates the mid-term forecasts for the labour market perspectives for about 100 educational programmes and occupations, 35 labour market regions and 21 industry sectors in the Netherlands.
- Using a variety of data and own econometric models we forecast labour demand (i.e., expansion, replacement and substitution demand) and supply (i.e., influx of graduates in into the labour market) ROA computes early warning indicators for imbalances on the labour market. Our labour market forecasts are updated every other year.
- These early warning indicators are useful to the youth when considering their educational and occupational choice, to the unemployed and unemployed placement office when considering retraining or career changes, to employers in their hiring policy and to policy makers who are concerned about the optimality of the match between educational demand and supply on the labour market.
- As part of this project, we produce an online statistical database containing our labour market forecasts and actual labour market information, the ‘Arbeidsmarktinformatiesysteem (AIS)’. The list of available indicators can be found in Appendix C of our latest report. Information requests for data from AIS should be addressed to S. Dijksman.
- Our forecasts and actual labour market information are widely used in research and policy.
- There is growing evidence that increasing the [transparency of labour market improves educational choices].
Recent reports and methods (in Dutch):
- Forecasts till 2024 and covid crisis (paper in ESB)
In this article (September 2020) we compare the labour market forecast up to 2024, which do not contain COVID-19 effects, with the development in the demand for labour during the COVID-19 crisis. We describe that those occupations for which we expected very few or no staffing bottlenecks the coming 6 years back in December 2019, show the largest decrease in labour market demand. Those occupations for which we expected very large staffing bottlenecks up to 2024 in December 2019 show the least decrease in demand. We update this analysis during the COVID-19 crisis and you can find the latest version here. For background data, please visit the AIS-website.
- Methodiek nationale arbeidsmarktprognoses 2019-2024
- De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep tot 2024
- Methodiek regionale arbeidsmarktprognoses 2019-2024
- Frictie op de arbeidsmarkt door de energietransitie - een modelverkenning
On the use of labour market information in education choices (in Dutch):
- Fact sheet Schoolverlaters tussen onderwijs en arbeidsmarkt 2017
- De rol van arbeidsmarktinformatie in de opleidingskeuze van mbo’ers
- Studiekeuze en arbeidsmarkt: Literatuurstudie
Recent evaluation studies (partly in Dutch):
- Commuter flow predictions in POA: Evaluation study
- Regional labour market structures
- Labour market forecasts by education and occupation up to 2024
- Project Onderwijs-Arbeidsmarkt: Gebruik van arbeidsmarktinformatie en impact
- International mobility of students – Its impact on labour market forecasts and its contribution to the Dutch economy
- Evaluatie uitbreidingsvraag en indicator toekomstige arbeidsmarktsituatie (ITA) tot 2008
- An evaluation of the forecast of the indicator of the labour market gap
- Evaluatie vervangingsvraagprognoses naar opleiding en beroep
- Verkenning van de mogelijkheden van het gebruik van administratieve data voor het Project Onderwijs-Arbeidsmarkt
- Occupational classification: Beroepenindeling ROA-CBS 2014 (BRC 2014)
- Educational classification: ROA Opleidingsclassificatie naar Niveau en Richting 2019 (ONR2019)