De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep tot 2030

ROA publishes new forecasts for alignment between education and the labour market until 2030

Despite a less tight labour market no end to shortages in healthcare, education, and tech

Employment will grow more slowly in the coming than in the previous years, and unemployment will rise slightly. Unemployment is highest among young people because they are impacted first when economic growth slows. The current labour market tightness is not expected to increase further in the coming years and may even decrease in some sectors. However, a real easing, and thereby an end to the structural bottlenecks in healthcare, technology, and education, is not expected. Political instability both domestically and abroad contributes to greater uncertainty in current estimates and forecasts. These are the main findings of the report 'The Labour Market by Education and Occupation until 2030' from the Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA) at Maastricht University.
 

Less tightness in the labour market but large differences in prospects between educational fields

Between 2025 and 2030, it is expected that nearly 1.6 million graduates will leave education and enter the labour market. In addition, during that period, over 840,000 students will be available for part-time jobs. The largest group of graduates will come from universities of applied sciences (hbo), followed by senior vocational education (mbo4). Against this supply stands the demand for workers over the next 6 years. Demand is determined by growth in employment and by how many workers need to be replaced because, for example, they retire or become unable to work. Up to 2030, more than 2.3 million job openings are expected, with about 1 in 10 openings arising from employment growth. The remaining 9 are due to replacement demand. This creates prospects for graduates that are considered fair. Yet there are many differences between fields of study. The prospects for graduates with an mbo4, bachelor's, or master's degree in a STEM field are good. Graduates with a degree in the area of food, nature, and the environment also have good prospects. The same applies to graduates who can work in education and healthcare. Studies in the field of economics and society have less favourable prospects.
 

Structural tightness in healthcare, education and tech 

The labour market is generally becoming less tight compared to recent years because economic growth is slowing down, but this does not apply to tech, healthcare, and education. The labour market remains tight for STEM workers, teachers, and healthcare staff, and employers will continue to struggle to find and retain suitable personnel. “We can conclude that the expected adjustment mechanisms in the labour market during shortages, such as higher wages, permanent contracts, and attractive employment conditions, do not sufficiently restore the equilibrium in the labour market,” says Jessie Bakens, research leader at ROA. “Although the number of students in STEM fields, primary teacher education, nursing, and medical studies is in line with expectations, the numbers have been structurally too low for years to meet the growing demand in these sectors.” Employers actively recruit STEM-workers from abroad, and foreign graduates in technical fields remain in the Netherlands after their studies. Such solutions are more difficult for healthcare and education, where proficiency in the Dutch language is important. "This means that ways must be sought to structurally interest more Dutch youngsters in studying STEM, education, and healthcare. Furthermore, ways must be explored to increase lateral entry into these sectors and ensure that the new entrants are retained in these sectors. Additionally, investments in technologies that increase labour productivity can ensure that we can do the same amount of work with fewer people," says Bakens.
 

The workforce in the Netherlands is increasingly highly educated. 

The trend of the Dutch workforce becoming increasingly highly educated has consequences for the labour market. Not only are there more and more workers with a higher professional education (hbo) or university (wo) degree, but at the secondary vocational education (mbo) level, level 4 is by far the largest group of students. Among the workers who will retire in the coming years, there is also a large group with mbo-level education. Bakens indicates that “there may be a little less job growth for mbo graduates, but there is demand because many workers retiring have an mbo-education. Workers who retire can be partially replaced by someone with a higher level of education, but theoretically trained bachelors are not always suitable for the practically oriented occupations of mbo-graduates.” The prospects for graduates with an mbo level 4 diploma are therefore improving and are generally even better than the prospects for bachelor’s degree graduates. This means that the difference in labour market position between bachelor’s degree graduates and MBO level 4 graduates is becoming smaller.
 

Agricultural professions and Defense sector
Furthermore, the report highlights two interesting developments in the labour market over the next 6 years. Although employment for farmers, foresters, and livestock breeders is structurally declining, the expected shortages are significant, primarily because the demand for replacement is high and the influx from education is low. How the next government will shape agricultural and nitrogen policies is important in this context. But there is more. Bakens points out that "the transition in the so-called green-blue sectors is clearly reflected in the forecasts. On the one hand, there is a decline in traditional agricultural professions, and on the other, there is growth in the professions needed for sustainable food production, climate adaptation, and improving the quality of the living environment."

In addition, there will also be an increase in employment in the defense sector. Since it is not yet clear what the structure of a larger military force will look like, these factors have not yet been fully included in the forecasts. However, the educational background of people currently working in military professions has been considered. “We then conclude that the educational background of current military personnel across all ranks only partially overlaps with the fields of study for which we expect major bottlenecks until 2030. This is actually good news for the recruitment of military personnel by the defense sector.”

Download Publications

Bakens, J., Dijksman, S., Fouarge, D., van Guilik, N., Höfelmann, L., Meijer, R., Pestel, N. (2025). De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep tot 2030. ROA Report No.008

Bakens, J., Retz, M., van Guilik, N. (2025). Arbeidsmarktprognoses tot 2030. ROA Factsheet No. 006

Meijer, R., Dijksman, S., Bakens, J. (2025). Methodiek arbeidsmarktprognoses en -indicatoren 2025-2030. ROA Technical Report No. 004