Update ROA labour market forecasts up to 2030: higher growth, but bottlenecks remain largely the same

ROA has published an update of the national labour market forecasts up to 2030.

This update incorporates the most recent economic growth forecasts. The higher growth estimates mean that the expected expansion demand for labour – the component of labour demand most sensitive to economic cycles – is also higher than in the November 2025 forecasts.

Further information on CPB’s growth forecasts:
https://www.cpb.nl/raming/centraal-economisch-plan-cep-2026

Nevertheless, this has hardly led to any shifts in the expected labour shortages for occupations or the labour market prospects for educational programmes.

A key explanation is that about 90 per cent of the labour demand stems from the replacement of workers – for example, due to retirement – whilst only a smaller proportion is driven by increase in demand.

This highlights how important replacement demand is for the future labour market. Even when economic growth forecasts change, structural developments such as labour outflow and an ageing population continue to play a major role.

At the same time, the future remains uncertain. Labour market forecasts depend on economic developments that are difficult to predict in full. Fluctuating energy prices are a good example of this.

Download the factsheet

Bakens, J., & Retz, M. (2026). Arbeidsmarktprognoses update tot 2030. Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market. ROA Fact Sheets No. 005 https://doi.org/10.26481/umarof.2026005

Data

The underlying data can be found in ROA’s Labour Market Information System: https://roastatistics.shinyapps.io/AIStot2030/