AOW Monitor 2021

Authors: Raymond Montizaan, Rogier Goedhart, Ineke Bijlsma

ROA has been commissioned by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment to provide the relevant facts and trends with the AOW eligibility age increase for the period 2007-2019. The research concerns an update of the AOW monitor that was first published in 2020.

The state pension age has risen step by step since 2013 from 65 to 67 in 2024. As a result we observe that the employment rate of 65-year-olds has increased. There is also a first increase in the employment rate of 66-year-olds. At the same time, people stay longer in unemployment and disability benefits. The health of older workers has not deteriorated or improved.

There are a few notable deviations in results from the previous monitor:

1. The average retirement age of the self-employed has risen sharply since 2017, while the increase for employees has actually leveled off.
2. The peak in retirement age has shifted from 65 to 66, in agreement with the change in the state pension age.
3. The small decline in the probability of outflow from employment to unemployment benefits previously reported has continued to 2019. The probability of outflow from work to WIA stays stable.
4. The percentage of older workers who think they can meet physical and psychological demands have increased significantly since 2017.
5. Compared to the previous monitor, however, there is a significant decline in training participation, especially in courses offered by employer financed courses. Although this decline is not only limited to the elderly, it triggers the question to what extent this decrease in training participation will have a negative effect in the long term on sustainable employment.

Download report in Dutch: AOW Monitor 2021 >>